Howdy, Guest User

Canadian Dollar Struggles as US-Canada Trade Tensions Rise – August 25, 2026, 8:00 am

• Collapsing US-Canada trade negotiations have pinned down the Canadian dollar, preventing the currency from capitalizing on broader US dollar weakness. Intensified trade frictions have forced foreign exchange traders to demand a higher risk premium on Canada.

• Souring bilateral sentiment threatens Canadian exports and domestic business investment, yet a retreating US dollar acts as a crucial cushion, keeping the Canadian dollar trapped in limbo rather than a full freefall.

• Price action remains headline-driven at the intersection of trade brinkmanship and softer US dollar sentiment, leaving the Canadian dollar highly reactive until negotiations resolve.

Global Pmi

Headline PMIs look strong, but look beneath the surface. 

​Last week’s flash PMI numbers printed impressive headline highs across major economies:

​🇺🇸 US Composite: 56.0 (52-month high), powered by services (56.8) while manufacturing cooled to 53.2.

​🇪🇺 Eurozone Composite: 52.1 (9-month high) with German factory output hitting a 55-month high (even as German services lag at 48.5 and France contracts at 48.8).

​🇯🇵 Japan: 53.4 (6-month high), reporting its strongest new manufacturing orders since 2018.

​🇬🇧 UK: 52.5 (4-month high), though input cost inflation is picking back up.

Forex market brief for 24 August 2026:

The US dollar is softer near the 99 level. Concerns about the fiscal outlook, uncertainty around Fed policy, and plans to double long-end Treasury buybacks to 4 billion dollars per operation are weighing on sentiment.

The euro is firmer after Eurozone manufacturing PMI reached 52.8, although weak German and French services data limit the upside.

Sterling is mixed: UK services remain resilient, but July retail sales fell 0.5% month-on-month.

The Canadian dollar is supported by stronger-than-expected retail sales, which rose 0.6% in June versus 0.4% expected.

The Australian dollar is in focus ahead of Tuesday’s RBA minutes, which may clarify the hike-versus-hold debate. One currency-strength update favours buying AUD and NZD against selected currencies.

Main risk this week: Jackson Hole and any change in Fed-rate

Global PMIs Lift Euro as US Dollar Slips on Fiscal Risks – August 22, 2026, 7:12 pm

Summary

• Eurozone data beats expectations.
• UK retail sales disappoint markets.
• Canadian sales grow as dollar weakens supporting the commodity currencies.

Market Update : EUR – August 18, 2026, 1:03 am

EUR – English

• EUR/USD remains bullish as USD weakness persists amid softer US economic data. Lower-than-expected retail sales, inflation, and employment figures have reduced expectations for a hawkish Fed, driving traders to unwind USD positions. This has supported EUR strength, with price action holding above key moving averages.

• Momentum indicators, including a strong ADX and positive MACD, suggest continued upside potential. However, consolidation near 1.1600 signals caution, with a pullback likely before further gains. A sustained break above 1.1620 could target 1.1685.

• Near-term risks include hawkish FOMC minutes or stronger US data, which could revive USD demand and weaken the bullish EUR setup.

EUR – Urdu

• EUR/USD bullish hai kyun ke USD kamzor ho raha hai, aur US economic data expected se soft aya hai.

• Retail sales, inflation aur employment ke numbers expected se kam rahe hain. Is wajah se market ko lag raha hai ke Federal Reserve zyada hawkish policy nahi rakhega.

• Traders USD ki buying positions close kar rahe hain, jis se dollar par pressure hai aur Euro strong ho raha hai.

Sentiment : Bullish