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Oil prices remain subdued

US-Iran progress and Iran oil sanctions waiver

  • These ongoing negotiations and the progress in the US‑Iran oil issues have created a positive environment for the markets and pushing the oil lower.
  • In order to go bullish on oil, there must be fundamentally some sort of disagreement between the US and Iran.
  • On the other hand, at least the pricing shall go above the 20‑moving average, and the candle must convert into a daily bullish candle. Only then are fundamentals and technicals may align.
• امریکہ اور ایران کے درمیان جاری negotiations اور US‑Iran oil issues میں جو progress ہو رہی ہے، اس نے markets میں ایک positive ماحول بنا دیا ہے اور oil کو نیچے دھکیل رہی ہے۔

• اگر oil میں bullish ہونا ہے، تو بنیادی طور پر امریکہ اور ایران کے درمیان کسی نہ کسی قسم کا disagreement ہونا ضروری ہے۔

• دوسری طرف، کم از کم pricing کو 20‑moving average سے اوپر جانا ہوگا، اور candle کو daily bullish candle میں بدلنا ہوگا۔ تب ہی fundamentals اور technicals ایک ساتھ align ہو سکتے ہیں۔

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BoJ Ueda Signals Moderate Recovery

BoJ’s Ueda says Japan’s economy is recovering moderately albeit with some weakness; Economic growth likely to slow but continue to moderate recovery

  • Risk that underlying inflation may overshoot 2%.
  • Financial environment remains accommodative after recent rate hike; continues to support economic activity.
  • Timing and pace of future hikes will be decided by scrutinising the likelihood of baseline forecasts materialising, as well as risks.
  • Japan’s Financial system remains stable as a whole.
• بینک آف جاپان کے Ueda کا کہنا ہے کہ جاپان کی معیشت کچھ کمزوری کے باوجود درمیانی رفتار سے سنبھل رہی ہے۔

• ان کے مطابق Economic growth شاید کچھ سست ہو، لیکن معیشت کی بحالی کا سلسلہ جاری رہنے کا امکان ہے۔

• یہ خطرہ موجود ہے کہ underlying inflation شاید 2% سے اوپر نکل جائے۔

• حالیہ rate hike کے بعد بھی Financial environment ابھی تک accommodative ہے، اور یہی چیز معاشی سرگرمی کو سہارا دے رہی ہے۔

• آئندہ hikes کا وقت اور رفتار اس بات کو غور سے دیکھ کر طے کی جائے گی کہ baseline forecasts کتنے پورے ہوتے ہیں، اور ساتھ ہی risks بھی دیکھے جائیں گے۔

• جاپان کا Financial system مجموعی طور پر مستحکم ہے۔

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Markets Price One Fed Hike, BofA Sees Three

  • Markets are currently pricing around 40bps of hikes through year-end, fully pricing one 25bp rate hike and assigning roughly a 60% probability to a second.
  • Meanwhile, Bank of America expects the FOMC to hike three times this year. 
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Oil Falls as US-Iran Deal Lifts Supply Outlook

  • Oil extended its decline as progress toward a US-Iran agreement raised expectations of increased Iranian supply.
  • Sentiment was further pressured by a 60-day US waiver allowing limited Iranian crude and fuel sales.
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US-Iran Technical Talks in Burgenstock Had a Breakthrough

US-Iran Technical Talks in Burgenstock Had a Breakthrough.Is this technically bearish for the oil? Let’s see how the markets react.

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